Driving enemy fleets into traps tends to work, but if the enemy does something unconventional, or if you get caught overextending your supply lines, then the AI WILL take advantage of your folly, if they have the resources.
Here's an example of what happened to me, recently, when I was employing this strategy:
I've only played a couple rounds, but the round I'm currently playing took a turn for the worse.
I, too, work with two fleets: my main assault fleet, and a secondary fleet. The main fleet has overwhelming strength (or so I thought), while my secondary fleet is a bit less powerful. I tend to alternate between using my main fleet to drive the AI towards my secondary fleet, or simply attacking with my secondary fleet.
The primary fleet is powerful enough that most enemy fleets simply retreat, but they'll stand and fight my secondary fleet.
I started off on a custom map. Three stars, ten players, and I have one ally...but he isn't in my star system, he's in a separate one, and can't send forces to help me just yet (he's tied up fighting the TEC in his own system). I'm playing as the advent.
So, here's where I stand. I was in the galaxy with three other empires; two Advent, and one TEC. I'd wiped out one of the Advent empires, and owned over 3/4 of my system. My plan is to clear out my system, then help my ally in his system, then move on the third system. Slow, but methodical battles are my tactic at this point.
Well, things took a turn for the worse when the predictable AI did something unexpected. I had both of my fleets stationed at a gas giant at an intersection between the two remaining enemy empires. The Advent had a mere three planets left, all isolated (they were connected in an "L" shape, to the gas giant and nothing else-- they were backed into a corner by my fleets), while the TEC had over five planets, and the more powerful fleet.
I decided to target the Advent first, pegging them as weaker after several skirmishes. I advanced to an Advent colony, their fleet, fled, and I began bombarding their planet. Figuring that the battle was won, I shifted my secondary fleet from the gas giant, towards a TEC ice planet. The TEC planet was lightly defended, but was connected to two TEC-controlled regions: one Terran planet, and one asteroid field. In my experience, late-game TEC empires were weak, so I didn't worry about them retaliating. Well, I was horribly wrong. When I made the custom map, I made phase jumps quite long-- several minutes, for the longest jumps. While it gives me time to prepare defenses when I see enemy fleets approaching, it makes it impossible to have a rapid response to an enemy invasion. My main fleet was two long jumps from my secondary fleet...which was two short jumps from several massive TEC fleets. I looked at the progress of my secondary fleet and noticed that two mid-sized TEC fleets were phasing in. I dismissed the threat, and continued with my bombardment. Well, several other fleets entered phase space. The TEC was, out of the blue, converging four separate, LARGE fleets on my mid-sized secondary fleet.
I was pretty screwed. Eager to hold on to my recently attained price (the TEC ice planet), I scrambled my secondary fleet to defend. When the TEC force arrived, I realized that I would have to pull back my primary fleet from the Advent empire to help fight off the TEC. Well, while my primary fleet pulled back, my secondary fleet was getting torn to ribbons. My intention was to weaken the enemy fleet while I waited for my primary fleet to arrive. Frankly, I underestimated the TEC. I didn't think they had the power to wipe out my secondary fleet. It was composed of high-level capital ships, numerous heavy cruisers, and a modest screen of frigates. My primary fleet had fewer capital ships, but far more heavy cruisers, and about 100 frigates.
However, the TEC was constantly sending in more Kodiaks and capital ships to take back the colony I had recently stolen from them, and my second fleet was taking a bigger beating than I thought. I lost 348 supply worth of ships from my second fleet by the time I pulled them out of there-- all that was left were one level 8 battlecruiser, and a few heavy cruisers. When my primary fleet arrived, I was stunned to realize that it was outnumbered, even after the battle. I beat a hasty retreat after exchanging a few blows, and had to fall back from the gas giant, to one of my heavily defended "frontier worlds"-- an ice world at the edge of the enemy empires, and connected to the gas giant, and one TEC world.
The result of several poor tactical decisions on my part was the loss of an entire fleet, and loosing on two fronts. When I saved and exited, the Advent had a group of cap ships on their way to my gas giant (I had mining operations on the asteroids), and the TEC was sitting on my recently-lost colony world. That's where I stand now, so I'll have to load up tomorrow and rebuild....then I'll still have two more systems to conquer.
I don't want to detract from the discussion, but if anyone has advice about how to take down AI when they're backed into a corner, I'd appreciate it. Slow and methodical, like I was doing earlier? Should I have pulled back from the gas giant, even though it was at a crucial intersection? Leaving my second fleet was a fatal error, I realize that know, but advice regarding other tactics would be appreciated.