Basically from watching the replay, it looks like an AI empire surrenders after effectively killing its income.  It over-expands, and doesn't bother to improve the majority of its planets, resulting in an almost negative income.  Considering that it was continually pumping out cobalts (whenever it could scrape the money together), this seems like a pretty severe tactical mistake - AIs shouldn't be surrendering during the expansion phase of the game, although they also shouldn't be allowing their income to tank so severely.

Would uploading the replay be useful?

Bh