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What happened to Global Warming?

By on June 20, 2013 9:54:31 AM from Sins of a Solar Empire Forums Sins of a Solar Empire Forums

ZombiesRus5

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What happened to Global Warming?

When I put my first above ground pool in around the late 90's we were able to open it in April and start swimming in May.

Now my pool is just opened and still not warm enough to swim in

 

I'd like some global warming back...

 

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GeomanNL
November 10, 2013 3:45:37 PM from Sins of a Solar Empire Forums Sins of a Solar Empire Forums

.

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November 10, 2013 3:47:46 PM from Sins of a Solar Empire Forums Sins of a Solar Empire Forums

Quoting Ekko_Tek,
Essentially, the answer is "those scientists are lying bastards and I know better than they do".

 

TBH I am no closer to understanding anti AGW viewpoint I don't want to become a mindless hater just because I currently fail to understand what they think of this topic.

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November 10, 2013 4:31:28 PM from Sins of a Solar Empire Forums Sins of a Solar Empire Forums

CO2 is a greenhouse gas, true, but the atmosphere is not a greenhouse.

 

A greenhouse is enclosed, a controlled environment.  You put IR blocking panels up in a stagnant structurally enclosed area where air movement is a non-issue, and walla, a heat increase from trapped energy.

 

The atmosphere is a complex system with multiple countering forces, dominated by water.  There's nothing stagnant about it.  Our actual greenhouse effect is much greater than the temperature variation, but there are substantial cooling factors, namely conduction, increased albedo, and condensation.

 

CO2 is a trace element, a minor factor.  Even by IPCC standards(and these are hilariously flawed) it only accounts for about two degrees of our temperature variation over what we'd expect without an atmosphere.  The rest is the magic feedback, where somehow, the water cycle becomes some magical addition because the CO2 increase is anthropogenic.

 

In the real world, more surface heating results in more heat loss through conduction.  More moisture uptake results in greater heat loss, higher albedo through cloud cover.  The greater the temperature variance, the faster the warmer air rises.  The warmer the water, the faster it evaporates and transports that water to the upper troposphere, to release the heat into the stratosphere as it condenses and falls back to earth, absorbing heat from the atmosphere on the way down.

 

Saying CO2 is a greenhouse gas, so obviously the temperature is increasing, is like saying you pissed on a plant, so obviously it will grow more.  If it all evaporates without being absorbed by the plant, or other factors hold sway, you haven't accomplished anything.  Perhaps you just increased the acidity of the soil to a point where the plant gets sick and dies.

 

We have a great many factors to take into account, and everything but CO2 is being written off as minor.  The variation between the stratosphere and troposphere, the amount of scattering at the surface, there are secondary factors in abundance to explain this phenomenon, but CO2, which doesn't, has been locked into as the cause.  It could be nothing more than the aerosols two stratovolcanic eruptions put into the atmosphere, combined with our own CFC production.  If they're simply underestimating the impact of the ozone layer, we've got a radically different impact from the claim.  If water is 98% of the greenhouse effect(the other end of the spectrum) then CO2 levels would need to be high enough to kill us before we changed the climate to the degree the IPCC claims just a few hundred more would manage.

 

From what I've learned over the years, CO2 has a potential impact, but it's minor if there at all.  Our sharp rise in temperature is the result of rewriting the past.  The current trend of stagnant temperatures as it peaked and went into decline, and the preceeding two decades of increases, are an entirely natural cycle.  We're in a repeat of the late 40's right now.  The 90's were comparable to the 30's, less extreme, but possibly a year or two prolonged.  For some strange reason no one seems to be able to find arctic ice sheet extent from the early to mid 40's, which would be the period of interest regarding the recent record low levels in the arctic.  It's entirely possible that the record lows we saw were also less extreme than the past cycle was, further indicating a gradual cooling trend over the last century.  That gradual trend being exactly what was shown to be occurring in the surface station record until the late 90's, despite large quantities of heat biased stations in urban locations.  Today it shows an abnormal rise instead.  This is explained as being corrections for biases in measurement, but I'm quite certain this is a lie.  Having looked at the station records myself for supposed bias corrections I feel quite safe in the opinion that the people making them sold their professional ethics for government funding.

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November 10, 2013 4:41:47 PM from Elemental Forums Elemental Forums

Quoting psychoak,

CO2 is a greenhouse gas, true, but the atmosphere is not a greenhouse.

That's why Venus has higher surface temperatures than Mercury despite being farther from the sun... because of the greenhouse gases of its dense atmosphere. Right.

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November 10, 2013 4:42:56 PM from Sins of a Solar Empire Forums Sins of a Solar Empire Forums

"This is the strongest typhoon to hit Batanes in 25 years,"

 

http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/hysteria

 

Nice link, really shows how global warming is real...

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November 10, 2013 4:42:59 PM from WinCustomize Forums WinCustomize Forums

Quoting psychoak,
and walla

Sigh.

'et voila' .... Spell checker ...

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November 10, 2013 4:49:16 PM from Sins of a Solar Empire Forums Sins of a Solar Empire Forums

It's not my fault, spellchecker did it!

 

If only they'd started killing people for adding words to the English language that had identical sounds a few centuries back.

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November 10, 2013 4:50:44 PM from Sins of a Solar Empire Forums Sins of a Solar Empire Forums

Wow thanks psychoak, nice text describing the problem well.

 

I know CO2 is a minor thingy, I study Geography at university, we had several courses about environmental changes.

I understand the cycle hypothesis, but what if we currently live in a cooling cycle like in the middle ages, Little Ice Age or how English calls it? What if this naturally cooler period is mitigated by human effects? Though IF's are not very constructive, I know..

I still think what mankind does currently to this planet IS changing the whole climate. And the increasing number of extreme hot years sounds convincing, along with the extreme natural disasters, increasing in strength, and what I see in my country, Hungary, that the climate is becoming warmer and dryer as time passes by.

Another question, why do you say government funding? I used to track this thread long ago while it had only a few pages of comments but I got bored of multiple reposting and long walls of texts, but true, because of this I fail to understand why would it be good for any government to alter reality (as I missed about 40 pages lol)? To make up non existing processes? Aren't they interested in supporting the current consumption levels by saying these do not have any effect on this planet at all? It sounds controversial for me that they want to say man causes global warming, or maybe I totally misunderstand something?

 

Sorry if this had been already discussed in the past, but I don't really want to spend a whole day reading commments in this thread, but still interested in the opposing viewpoint.

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November 10, 2013 4:54:53 PM from WinCustomize Forums WinCustomize Forums

Quoting Turchany,
Another question, why do you say government funding? I used to track this thread long ago while it had only a few pages of comments but I got bored of multiple reposting and long walls of texts, but true, because of this I fail to understand why would it be good for any government to alter reality (as I missed about 40 pages lol)? To make up non existing processes? Aren't they interested in supporting the current consumption levels by saying these do not have any effect on this planet at all? It sounds controversial for me that they want to say man causes global warming, or maybe I totally misunderstand something?

The nature of Politics is that there will always be an agenda to BOTH support AND refute whatever claim is made - about anything.

Adversarial Government will see to that.

As to whom you agree with.....probably blame your parents for the brainwashing to their political bent....

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November 10, 2013 5:35:46 PM from Sins of a Solar Empire Forums Sins of a Solar Empire Forums

Quoting Jafo,
The nature of Politics is that there will always be an agenda to BOTH support AND refute whatever claim is made - about anything.

 

lol that's true, can't argue with that

 

Quoting Jafo,
As to whom you agree with.....probably blame your parents for the brainwashing to their political bent....

 

Not in all cases, I don't really share any of my parents' beliefs, am I the only one like this?

 

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November 10, 2013 5:52:12 PM from Sins of a Solar Empire Forums Sins of a Solar Empire Forums

NASA gets funding to study the climate.  In 1998, NASA came out and said the US was in a long term cooling trend, the NOAA said the same thing in '89.  Congress cut their funding.  An empty political act to show how responsible they were with our money while they piss it away in massive quantities year after year on social programs, no bid contracts, and outright graft.

 

Since, NASA and the NOAA have radically altered past temperature data, and the high temperatures in the past, with the accompanying severe impacts, are gone.  The 80's are now just as warm, and the 90's significantly warmer, instead of slightly cooler.  NASA receives a great deal of funding specifically for monitoring climate change.  The corollary between funding and results is obvious.

 

Whether it's because they aren't interested in studying a problem that doesn't exist, or they aren't interested in funding something that doesn't give them a reason to increase their own power, is academic.  Either way, they only fund climate change research because climate change research is showing them something dire.

 

The UN stands to see trillions in revenue(yes, trillions) from a global carbon credit trading system.  The organization is rife with corruption, a fact of life as opposed to a point of view from dissenters.  The minor details of everyday corruption at the UN aren't even noteworthy, they get ignored because it's not worth reporting on.  This isn't a dig at the UN, large political organizations are always corrupt, it's just the nature of humanity.  People seeking power just don't trend to the altruistic outlook.  The IPCC wont exist if it doesn't show danger, the scientists getting paid know this, the politicians running the organization know this.  They either produce results, the results people hungry for more power want, or they're unemployed.

 

Without AGW, all of these climate scientists have to go scrounging for grants, stick to academia, or get a real job where they don't get to fuck around with cool toys and travel the world on someone elses dime.

 

For the climate in Hungary, assuming you have an actual long term trend in climate and haven't just been suckered, I'd say look for other explanations.  Draining swamps, diverting water for cultivation and city use, clearing forests, heavy urbanization.

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November 10, 2013 5:56:26 PM from Sins of a Solar Empire Forums Sins of a Solar Empire Forums

http://www.arizonaenergy.org/Analysis/MakingSense/Water%20vapour--%20feedback%20or%20forcing.htm

Ok one last time.

You cannot isolate CO2 and claim it has no effect... there is a feedback on water vapor. You cannot separate those two.

After that (and only after that!) you can think about cloud cover etcetera.

Now... if levels of CO2 and H2O are high enough to increase the temperature on earth by 10 degrees by themselves, how much change in cloud cover (albedo), solar radiation change, el ninos, cooling volcanic eruptions would you need to compensate for that ... and how realistic would such a scenario be.

Humor me.

 

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November 10, 2013 6:40:53 PM from Sins of a Solar Empire Forums Sins of a Solar Empire Forums

Some of us actually mean it when we say we're not going to bother responding further.  I'm tired of running around in circles for you just so you can go back to harping on the same wrong point.  Someone else can humor you for the next ten pages.

 

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November 11, 2013 2:25:45 AM from Sins of a Solar Empire Forums Sins of a Solar Empire Forums

It's not a circle... and I bet you cannot answer it, because all you have are many little "facts", each of which may give or take 0.2 to 1.0 degrees celcius of warming or cooling, but when it comes to creating a consistent picture of future warming due to a CO2 you fail ... well I'll just answer the question for you.

http://www.climate4you.com/ClimateAndClouds.htm

This picture suggests a 0,5 degree celcius drop of temperature for a 7 percent increase of cloud cover.

We're now at 70% cloud cover. There is 30% left to cover, which means cloud cover can cause a mitigation effect of 2 more degrees before there's 100% cover. Just face it: cloud cover has its limits and cannot compensate for any significant amounts of heating.

 

Other factors:

- Milankovitch cycles, have nearly zero effect. Less heat capture in the north is offset by more heat capture in the south. At most they can help trigger an ice age because of the continental bias in the Northern hemisphere. Also, these cycles are very slow, we're facing a rapid change of the order of 100 years; such a cycle has nearly no change during such a short time period.

- Volcanoes: a large volcano that emits lots of small particles can reduce temperatures on earth by 2 degrees for a few years. There are not enough volcanoes to create a consistent temperature decrease.

- Solar irradiance: can vary a little, but its contribution is only about 0.2 degrees celcius. It can help mask the current warming of 0.6 degrees, but it will have almost no mitigation effect on a warming of say 10 degrees celcius.

- Cosmic radiation (linked to clouds): has been shown to have negligible effect (less than 0.1 degree celcius).

- El ninos: have short-term temperature effect by replacing warm ocean waters with deeper cold ocean water. Can have a global effect of about 0.3 degrees.

If all these factors work together (including 100% cloud cover), you can have short-term mitigation effects of about 5 degrees celcius. Even such an extreme case isn't enough to stop global warming completely. The problem is really that the mitigation effects have a cap, while CO2 (and H2O) rise have no cap. And if such a perfect combination of effects would actually happen in the future, it'll just delay action even more, leading to higher levels of CO2 and thus to even bigger problems when the mitigation effects disappear.

(and with that remark it's really time to stop I think).

 

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November 11, 2013 2:42:49 AM from Sins of a Solar Empire Forums Sins of a Solar Empire Forums

Quoting psychoak,
Since, NASA and the NOAA have radically altered past temperature data,

 

Hm it sounds like a conspiracy theory to me, and I don't really like those (no matter how good they sound). Here's why: statistics can show what you want them to show, and it goes for both sides, and I guess it would require a neutral, highly trained and experienced group of climate scientist to decide what is true. I am not one.

 

Thanks for the explanation though, now I have a better insight on your viewpoint, and what is not clear about AGW.

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November 11, 2013 4:19:35 AM from Elemental Forums Elemental Forums

I recommend to the participants of the discussion to familiarize themselves with the scientific peer review process. It's not so easy to "skew data" in line with your political propaganda, certainly not as easy as on your local Tea Party gathering. Well, you can try, and many people tried in the past, but the result is usually huge scandal and loss of professional credibility of said scientist. Scientific data and findings, unlike political propaganda, are verifiable. 

And more links for our Middle Ages dwelling comrades:

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2013/09/130905-extreme-weather-climate-change-science-meteorology-sandy/

 

Hmm, polar ice will disappear during summer completely by the middle of the century. Those millions years old layers of ice are now melting. I wonder what that could mean... Probably just natural variations in weather. 

 

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November 11, 2013 4:21:51 AM from Elemental Forums Elemental Forums

psychoak - You can stop running in circles right now by accepting the recent scientific findings and educating yourself. Performing leaps of logic to save some refuted political dogma solves nothing. 

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November 11, 2013 5:31:50 AM from Sins of a Solar Empire Forums Sins of a Solar Empire Forums

I just have to share this with you... such a nice example of a stubborn scientists:

http://www.iceagenow.com/Prepare_for_Ice_Age_Now_says_top_paleoclimatologist.htm

Basically what's said here is, that first all the ice has to melt before a new ice age starts ... muhahaha

 

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November 11, 2013 6:33:24 AM from Elemental Forums Elemental Forums

"Now some researchers have revealed startling evidence that an Ice Age can be triggered in under 10 years."

Yeah, really, I mean seriously. "Some researchers" without providing a reference.

Please, familiarize us with scientific papers published on the topic. 

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November 11, 2013 6:54:26 AM from Sins of a Solar Empire Forums Sins of a Solar Empire Forums

Quoting Kamamura_CZ,
"Now some researchers have revealed startling evidence that an Ice Age can be triggered in under 10 years."

 

If the thermohaline conveyor belt of the oceans stop, it could easily cause an Ice age in no time, you may want to take a look at this:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heinrich_event

And we learnt about this at university, that Ice ages are not likely to start with a constant, slow decrease in tenperature, rather fast, taking only decades. And noone knows if the planet is not in an ice age already, just a warmer period, and these events brought back the colder periods in no time. I guess we don't want to find out what could cause the next one, cause that would be too late I guess.

 

TL:DR, during the latest ice age (that may still be happening nowadays, just we may be in an interglacial period) warmer periods ended with fast events, needing some 10 years only. These events were introduced by increasing global temperature level, and when these events occurred, caused the glacial (cold period) to come back.

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November 11, 2013 8:33:38 AM from Sins of a Solar Empire Forums Sins of a Solar Empire Forums

Ice ages happened when CO2 levels were low and the global temperatures were low compared to today.

We're seeing melt everywhere, also in Canada and Siberia which have a continental climate, not regulated by the Gulf Stream. There is just no way a new Ice Age can start under current conditions.

It is more in line with other paleontological observations which noticed an ice-free world at high CO2 levels. 600 ppm: no extensive glaciation in the Antarctic. 2000 ppm: no ice anywhere on the globe. In contrast, ice ages fall in the range of about 240 ppm CO2.


That wiki page is pretty interesting.

"Heinrich events occur during some, but not all, of the periodic cold spells preceding the rapid warming events known "

In other words, they occur during a period of warming which melts icebergs, and create a temporary cold-spell.

They don't cause an ice age... they're associated with the end of an ice age.

I don't think such a cold-spell can occur nowadays. In the North there is only 1 glaciers left: Greenland. And that one is tiny compared to the Ice Age glaciers of 12,000 years ago.

Maybe if the Antarctic glacier starts melting rapidly... that might be a sight to see.

 

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November 11, 2013 8:39:13 AM from WinCustomize Forums WinCustomize Forums

Quoting GeomanNL,
(and with that remark it's really time to stop I think).

The only absolute certainty [fact] in this thread is these words are meaningless....

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November 11, 2013 8:54:22 AM from WinCustomize Forums WinCustomize Forums

Quoting Jafo,


Quoting GeomanNL, reply 1090(and with that remark it's really time to stop I think).

The only absolute certainty [fact] in this thread is these words are meaningless....

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November 11, 2013 8:57:45 AM from Sins of a Solar Empire Forums Sins of a Solar Empire Forums

LOL.

I really want to stop but it's just too interesting. I'm so sorry 

 

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