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What happened to Global Warming?

By on June 20, 2013 9:54:31 AM from Sins of a Solar Empire Forums Sins of a Solar Empire Forums

ZombiesRus5

Join Date 02/2009
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What happened to Global Warming?

When I put my first above ground pool in around the late 90's we were able to open it in April and start swimming in May.

Now my pool is just opened and still not warm enough to swim in

 

I'd like some global warming back...

 

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July 25, 2014 11:38:11 PM from Little Tiny Frogs Forums Little Tiny Frogs Forums

I'm glad for this thread. If co2 continues its trajectory and surface temps remain flat we'll get to watch a lot of crow eating.

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July 26, 2014 3:46:00 AM from WinCustomize Forums WinCustomize Forums

Quoting Frogboy,

I'm glad for this thread. If co2 continues its trajectory and surface temps remain flat we'll get to watch a lot of crow eating.

I've heard crow is quite tasty, but me, I'll stick to regular poultry, thank you... if it survives this 'heatwave', that is.

Another theory I have - a serious one this time - is what if our calendar is all out of wack and the seasons are beginning and/or ending differently than they would have in past times, thus giving us the impression Summer is longer and hotter than in 1914... or that Winter is shorter and warmer than in 1814.

The Ancient Egyptians seemed to have it right with their calendar, using the 'dogstar' and the annual flooding of the Nile as a guide to the beginning and end of their year.  For mine, the Gregorian calendar effed everything up, what with Julius Caesar and Augustus adding days to glorify themselves for infinity.  Nowadays we have various agencies adding seconds here and there to 'so-say' correct the balance of time... but who is to say they've got it right when the model from which they're working is flawed to begin with?

I could go into this more deeply, but the point is that we may not be marking the beginning and end of the seasons correctly, meaning that weather patterns appear to be out of wack when in fact they're not.

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July 26, 2014 7:26:55 AM from Elemental Forums Elemental Forums

Quoting ZombiesRus5,

So far we've only had a few good swimming days this year... Pretty sad overall. 

 

I needs me somes global warming.

 

 

It's been hot here in Sweden for atleast a month now so If you go out, you get sweaty and tired. I want rain, wind and less sun!

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July 26, 2014 8:12:47 AM from WinCustomize Forums WinCustomize Forums

Quoting Daiwa,

Seriously, Hankers, I have no interest in the 'forum ban game' thread, but I'm not over there bitchin' about it.  I solve the 'problem' of its presence by ignoring it.  As long as the T's of S aren't violated, nothing wrong with this thread that merits Mod intervention, lighthearted as yours I suspect was meant to be. 


Hankers, like the rest of the Mods are also members...and entitled to bring their personal views. It's not his fault they gave him a flak jacket to wear 24/7 and not everything he writes is as a Mod.

If he were responding as a Mod, his tone and choice of words would be different, Daiwa. In the absence of a pm from him and knowing him as I do, I'd say he was simply responding as a member who feels this thread had best have been let fade into oblivion (oddly enough, what he wrote).

That's how I'm responding also, btw: Not to be taken as a 'Wizop'-py comment.

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July 26, 2014 10:13:52 AM from Sins of a Solar Empire Forums Sins of a Solar Empire Forums

Another theory I have - a serious one this time - is what if our calendar is all out of wack and the seasons are beginning and/or ending differently than they would have in past times, thus giving us the impression Summer is longer and hotter than in 1914... or that Winter is shorter and warmer than in 1814.

 

This is actually not too far off from the truth.  Plants actually are coming in earlier in the spring.  One of the papers so horrendously categorized in the survey was one showing that the advancing spring was a product of CO2 directly, not a supposed temperature increase.

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July 26, 2014 10:14:22 AM from Sins of a Solar Empire Forums Sins of a Solar Empire Forums

Quoting Frogboy,

I'm glad for this thread. If co2 continues its trajectory and surface temps remain flat we'll get to watch a lot of crow eating.

This ^^

And as long as it is still up for policy debates in different countries, it should never die or go dormant. We need to stay vigilant and call out the snake oil salesmen whenever they crawl from the swamps.

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July 26, 2014 10:24:40 AM from WinCustomize Forums WinCustomize Forums

Starkers...it's not the calendar...it's the daylight saving....fades the blinds too...

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July 26, 2014 11:30:07 AM from WinCustomize Forums WinCustomize Forums

Quoting myfist0,

And as long as it is still up for policy debates in different countries, it should never die or go dormant. We need to stay vigilant and call out the snake oil salesmen whenever they crawl from the swamps.

Not all snake oil salesmen crawl out from swamps, peat bogs or scum filled ponds, though many give that impression.  We have a nefarious type of snake oil salesman residing in the Prime Ministers lodge at present.  As Health Minister he was forever trying to sell us various kinds of health care items to better care for ourselves.... yeah, right.  Now, as Prime minister, he's trying to sell it to us that it should cost us more because considerably more snakes have to die to produce it.

Frankly, I think he should help reduce costs by farming/breeding venomous snakes... and that he should personally go in the enclosures to harvest these magic, cure-all oils.

Quoting Jafo,

Starkers...it's not the calendar...it's the daylight saving....fades the blinds too..

Bloody Southerners... forever taking the mickey out of we Queenslanders for not adopting daylight savings.  If you lived up here you'd know why.  Firstly, the cows won't come in an hour later to be milked, and the cocks get confused so crow an hour later than usual.  Worse still, there's no eggs for breakfast due to hens not being on the job cos of a tardy cock.  And let me tell you something, Qld females are in no way impressed with a tardy cock.  Victorian cocks might get away with it, but not up here.

More to the point, Queenslanders won't adopt daylight saving until we can devise a sufficient container to keep it in.  I mean, wots the point of saving daylight if you got nowhere to keep it?

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July 26, 2014 2:13:43 PM from JoeUser Forums JoeUser Forums

I still bemoan bitching about a thread as opposed to participating in it.  It's a form of unnecessary condescension, a sort of indirect ad hominem, whether expressed as a Mod or just a Member.

To be sure, Hankers' contributions to the community (and yours, Doc) are respected and greatly appreciated and we can agree to disagree on this minor point (if there really is any disagreement).

Nuff said.

 

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July 27, 2014 2:39:12 AM from JoeUser Forums JoeUser Forums

http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2014/07/26/coolest-summer-on-record-in-the-us/

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July 30, 2014 4:42:17 AM from Elemental Forums Elemental Forums

Quoting Frogboy,

I'm glad for this thread. If co2 continues its trajectory and surface temps remain flat we'll get to watch a lot of crow eating.

 

I'd rather see crow eaten than global warming, but the science is good enough that plans should be made in case of global warming.

 

Also remember, weather is short-term, climate is something measured in decades and centuries.

 

The anti-global warming folks in the US are trying to prevent those plans from even being made (see the House trying to ban the Defense Department from making plans, or NC's attempt to ban the use of it from being used in any plans along the coast).  I don't think we should wreck the economy unilaterally, especially since it would just lead to outsourcing and a bigger problem.

 

(In other words, while I'm not a skeptic on the science, I am a skeptic on the policy side of things- I don't think the solutions proposed by some on the left would be effective, but I'm not in favor of the anti-science position of some on the right)

 

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July 30, 2014 4:42:30 PM from Sins of a Solar Empire Forums Sins of a Solar Empire Forums

Power generation with wind and solar is half again to three times as expensive as with coal.  That knocks a couple grand out of your yearly budget.  Ethanol has done worse, food prices more than doubled since that insanity took place.

 

The economy was already wrecked.

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July 31, 2014 12:09:37 AM from Elemental Forums Elemental Forums

Weather is not the same as climate.  Climate changes do cycle.  There have been several ice ages, and several warmer interludes.  Are we in another interglacial interlude?  I don't know - nor does it probably matter to me, or any of our descendents.

Variations in our distance from the sun, albedo of the earth, percentage of ice cover, cloud cover, minor variations in orbit, etc., all affect the amount of total energy from sun that remains in the biosphere/troposphere (yada) of Earth.  Energy in, energy reflects, radiates out.  This is the energy balance re: solar energy hitting the earth. Sometimes volcanoes spew out enough ash and smoke to cover enough of the planet to cool things down a bit.  But, additionally, has our species modified this energy balance in any way?  Probably.

Eons ago, the advent of plant life (photosynthesis) added Oxygen to a planetary atmosphere that had little.  Its now about 20-21%.  Changes in the composition of the atmosphere change the energy balance as well.  Additionally, we, as a species, have been releasing massive amounts of carbon based energy from 'fossil fuels.'  We have also added energy via nuclear fission processes.  Does all this additional energy released by our species get immediately and totally vented outside our atmosphere?  Or does in accumulate in the water and air, thus adding energy to the weather?  I think it takes time to get vented totally. Some places are colder / hotter now than they were in the recent past.  That is weather. 

The climate, however, does seem to have storms that are incrementally more powerful (having more energy).  We have added a bit of energy to the system. Seems to be that is the definition of global warming.  Whether or not the natural cycles are moving earth into a warmer period, or not, is irrelevant.  Our species is modifying things on a planetary scale - and those modifications result in more energy being added to, and remaining longer, in the biosphere/troposphere (yada).  That is global warming - no matter what label you put on it, or how one rationalizes their choices. 

Good news; Earth will be just fine.  We can do our worst - and the worst result, for humans, will be to modify planet earth into a state where we don't survive.  Making the planet a global midden will toxify earth to the point where humans can't live here anymore.  But Earth will do fine.  New species will evolve to fill the niches we vacate.  New species will evolve to fill the new niches created by our global garbage dump. Perhaps our name, 'wise apes' is premature.  Intelligence has short term survival value, for sure. But intelligence seems to have a negative when it comes to planet wide species survival.  How wise are the current hominids on earth?  Profits are the new prophets.  But are we wise enough?

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July 31, 2014 10:17:19 AM from WinCustomize Forums WinCustomize Forums

Quoting ElanaAhova,

But are we wise enough?

Nope, far from it... and because the majority of mankind lacks the moral fibre, basic scruples and integrity to earn the right to remain on the planet,  the planet will eventually brush us off like flies and begin a new era with a new, less arrogant species that respects its environment.

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July 31, 2014 12:06:12 PM from Sins of a Solar Empire Forums Sins of a Solar Empire Forums

That myth is indomitable...

 

I'd shoot it down, but I just did it on the last page.  Someone else explain that whole "not very many powerful storms" bit this time around.

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July 31, 2014 12:57:38 PM from Stardock Forums Stardock Forums

See post below - this can be deleted.

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July 31, 2014 1:17:51 PM from Stardock Forums Stardock Forums

I'm going to try and clarify something that I haven't been clear on here.  Its really confusing because statistics can be confusing:

The phrase "no statistically significant warming" DOES NOT IMPLY that there has been no warming.  Yes, this is really confusing and counterintuitive.  Its a result of (frequentist) hypothesis testing, and is one reason why people butcher science so badly.  Essentially, science works around falsifying a null hypothesis, which is the opposite of what you actually want to show.  It is fallacious to have what you want to show be the same as your null hypothesis, but that is exactly what you would be doing if you were to claim that "no statistically significant warming" implies no warming here.

A more in depth analysis:

http://skeptics.stackexchange.com/questions/19291/have-global-surface-temperatures-not-shown-significant-warming-since-the-late-19

 

The first thing to point out is that "no statistically significant warming" does not mean that there has been no warming, essentially it just means that there hasn't been enough warming to rule out the possibility that there has been no warming. If that sounds counter-intuitive, it is because it is, but that is the way frequentist statistical hypothesis testing works.

The way frequentist hypothesis tests work is broadly as follows: Say you have a hypothesis (H1) that you wish to support using a set of observations (X). Next you define a "null hypothesis" that is basically what you need to show to be false in order for your H1 to be true. For example, if you hypothesise that there has been some warming, then the obvious choice for H0 is that there has been no warming at all, i.e. the rate of warming is zero. You then calculate the p-value, which is the probability of observing a trend at least as large as that observed IF H0 is true. If the p-value is sufficiently small, say p < 0.05, this is taken as sufficient evidence that H0 is false so we say that "we reject the null hypothesis" or equivalently "the rate of warming is statistically significant" and otherwise "we fail to reject the null hypothesis" or "the rate of warming is not statistically significant".

Now the first point to notice here is that H0 should be the hypothesis you are arguing against. So for mainstream science, which suggests there will be warming due to the greenhouse effect, the natural H0 is that there is no warming. The "Skeptics" on the other hand hypothesise there is no warming, yet they are using that as their null hypothesis as well. This is a grave statistical error as it means that hypothesis testing no longer functions as a sanity check, as the skeptics are assuming that they are right and requiring evidence to prove them wrong. Mainstream science on the other hand are assuming that they are wrong (H0 is true) and asking if the observations refute H0 (implying, but not proving that H1 is true).

This is part of the reason why I've been objecting to this thread.  The premise its based on is based on incorrect statistical reasoning.

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July 31, 2014 4:10:26 PM from JoeUser Forums JoeUser Forums

Quoting Krazikarl,

The phrase "no statistically significant warming" DOES NOT IMPLY that there has been no warming.

It also DOES NOT IMPLY that there has been any warming.

Problem with your point is that the burden of proof is on those pushing the warming hypothesis.

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July 31, 2014 4:59:28 PM from Stardock Forums Stardock Forums

Quoting Daiwa,

Problem with your point is that the burden of proof is on those pushing the warming hypothesis.

Sure.  There is a vast amount of literature that does this, as I'm sure you are aware.

The problem is that the skeptics/deniers fixate on the few exceptions.  So if you have 99 trials that are consistent with climate change and 1 that seems to be anomalous, guess which one gets discussed to no end.  Of course, that one usually gets explained after a few more studies, but then its on to the next seeming oddity.

So the underlying problem is that every study which affirms climate change is immediately dismissed by skeptics/deniers as being part of the groupthink conspiracy.  It doesn't amount to anything.  But the few anomalies are a bit deal even though anomalous studies are a part of any branch of accepted science and are almost always reconciled eventually (but not always, which is why they need to be looked into).  That kind of biased perception leads to a skewed view of the state of the art.

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July 31, 2014 5:14:14 PM from PoliticalMachine Forums PoliticalMachine Forums

I agree with karl.

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July 31, 2014 5:41:59 PM from Elemental Forums Elemental Forums

I have to agree with Karl and ElanaAhova on this.  I have not read this whole entire thread so I will not attempt to throw my knowledge (opinion to some) in as I do not know what has been discussed.

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July 31, 2014 5:55:57 PM from Sins of a Solar Empire Forums Sins of a Solar Empire Forums

Incorrect statistical reasoning sums up AGW in general.

 

The warming trends are a bad joke.  Nearly all of the warming for the 20th century is gone if you don't assume that people were complete fucking retards and didn't know how to reset their thermometers at a time other than peak temperature.  I put great stock in the abject stupidity of mankind, I'm still not enough of a sucker to buy this.

 

Were we warming?  Probably.  Were we warming significantly?  Exceedingly unlikely.  Anecdotal evidence says the 30's were massively warmer in the US than they were in the last decade, and the unaltered temperature measurements bear that out.  It's only after one comes up with a fictitious argument that people were too stupid to reset the high at a time other than the high of the day.  They used this fictitious argument to knock .6C off the temperature in the 30's, despite the stations that weren't checked in the afternoon showing the same record high temperatures.  For anyone with half a wit, this is a completely expected result, but apparently the TOB pushers don't have half a wit between them as they're still pushing it post debunking.  It was actually physically impossible, you can't reset the high on a mechanical measurement, while you're at the high temperature.  The marker would just stay there, sitting on top of the mercury.

 

All of the temperature datasets have flatlined over the last decade.  RSS is actually reading lower than UAH now, their .239C per decade temperature trend is gone, never existed.  Spencer and Christy were proven right in the end and RSS had to fix their measurements.  We've got a clearly backed up trend of somewhere around .135C per decade since the late 70's, a time period we damn well know was a cool period far below highs in the 50's and 30's.  When someone says otherwise, it's fraud.

 

Combine that with the mythical TOB, hinging on the abject stupidity of people that made a career of monitoring the weather and somehow couldn't comprehend the proper usage of their equipment, and you've got a moderate high that barely rates mentioning, and peaked around 2005.  I feel like Captain Obvious every time I mention how crooked the homogenization efforts are...

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July 31, 2014 6:34:06 PM from JoeUser Forums JoeUser Forums

Quoting Krazikarl,

The problem is that the skeptics/deniers fixate on the few exceptions.

Not exactly.  Mostly we/they fixate on the fudging/falsification of data to create a desired result.  psychoak is on the mark.  If current AGW theory failed to predict the observed multidecadal isothermal 'trend' (especially with the fudged antecedent data) then it ain't much of a theory.  What was threatened would happen hasn't happened, despite atmospheric CO2 concentration exhibiting a virtually linear (that's 'straight line') climb of 17% from 1975 to 2012, from ~330 to ~385.  What I'm saying is we need a better, more reliably predictive model, not to mention the ability to predict the effects of 'interventions' (a far, far bigger problem) before we go sawing the limb off behind us.

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July 31, 2014 7:14:06 PM from Stardock Forums Stardock Forums

Quoting Daiwa,

If current AGW theory failed to predict the observed multidecadal isothermal 'trend' (especially with the fudged antecedent data) then it ain't much of a theory.

My links have shown 2 things:

1) Lengthy pauses in rising temperatures were predicted by climate change models despite steady increases in greenhouse gasses.  See the posts immediately above.  For example:

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2009GL037810/abstract

(This was included in my previous links if you actually bothered to read them)

2) The alleged pause in temperature rises doesn't actually exist.  This is from two separate arguments - both bad data analysis and bad understanding of how hypothesis testing works (both also covered in my previous link) on the part of skeptics/deniers.

To put it bluntly, you don't have any observation of a "pause" in temperatures other than the one arrived at by fallacious reasoning (equating "no statistically significant warming" with no warming).  If you have any evidence of the pause that actually uses appropriate hypothesis testing/statistical reasoning, by all means, I'd love to see it.  Nobody has provided that in this thread yet.

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July 31, 2014 7:45:26 PM from WinCustomize Forums WinCustomize Forums

Global warming is a reality.

It is caused by all the repetitious hot air vented over it in threads like this....

...and THAT is not open to debate....

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