What does it matter if either happens?
Life will go on, no matter what state that may be.
The greatest threat I see to America is it's internal religious issues. As far as I can tell, Americas biggest threat is itself. Like any " empire " or nation, it must have the desire to hold itself together. The UK is a good example in some respects. 49% of English want to break the Union, about 48% of Scots at the last poll i saw want the same, 29% of the Welsh want a break, while in another poll 80% approx want the same powers as what Scotland has now. Following those basic numbers, the United Kingdom has maybe 20 or 30 years left before a total break up, simply because the numbers of people in each of the constituant nations no longer want to remain together as one.
Looking at that, who is to say there will not be a fundamental split between the Red and Blue states of the US, due to relgious differences? As an outsider, it seems the US is already in a serious debate on the rights of Homosexuals and the nature of faith. I don't think a split will happen, but it seems to be a scenario that is more likely.
I noticed that one or two people ask why this is being debated on a game froum.... I thought "Off Topic" as a title was self explanitory?