I THINK I FOUND THE PROBLEM
There's a bit of a delay between when the mitigation is upped and when it starts to fall.
Ok, I'm trying my best to show all of the numbers. My understanding of the mitigation factor is this. A ship's mitigation goes up 1% for every 10 damage taken per second, and then goes down constantly at a rate of 1.25%.
So, let's consider the Assailant
-does 78 damage every 6 seconds, that means BEFORE mitigation is applied, 78 damage is applied. I'm not sure if the mitigation factor is determined from how much the ship takes or how much the volley would do in theory (78 vs. 66 for example). I'll do calculations for both.
EDIT: Ok, I think it has to be BEFORE mitigaiton is applied. I just did a run down calculation. If it was determined by post mitigation, the Illum would die MUCH quicker.
-78 damage raises the mitigation 7.8%. Over the 6 seconds it takes for the next volley to get there, the mitigaiton will go down 7.5%. This means slowly but surely the damage the Assailant does to the Illum is going to go down because with each shot the Illum's mitigaiton shields go up .3%. In theory.
-That's what happens in theory. What I've noticed is there seems to be about a 2 second delay between when the damage hits, and the mitigaiton starts to fall. What I mean is, the damage from the volley is done, the mitigation climbs, but there's a 2 second delay before the mitigation starts to fall. 2 seconds is a rough guess, but I think this is what's throwing off the 1v1.
-You must also take into account shield and health regeneration rates, and not to mention armor. This makes the calculations even more complicated because you have to take into account both "the Shields being hit only" phase and then "the shields gone but regenerating and now hitting the hull which is also regenerating" phase. This makes calculating the 1v1 very very complicated.
So let's take a look at what happens if it's determined by the damage pre-mitigaiton
78 damage is done. 66.3 makes it through to hit the shields because of 15% mitigaiton shields.
The mitigation goes up to 22.8%, but falls back down to 17.8% for the second volley. (falls 6% between volleys)
Of that 66.3 damage, 6 is regenerated by the shields, so really only 60.3 damage has been done to the Illum.
And the Second Volley:
78 more damage is done. 64.116 damage makes it through because of 17.8% mitigation shields.
The mitigation goes up to 24.2% but falls back down to 18.2% for the third volley.
Of that 64.1 damage, 6 is regenerated by the shields, so only 58.1 damage has been down to the Illum.
So if you follow this logic, take a look at the spreadsheet I've made. I've also included charts that take into account updating mitigaiton if it's determined by actual damage taken. (Logic's adjusted, but outcome's the same).
So what are my conclusions?
- Mitigation increases are determined by the theoretical pre-mitigation values. The missile volleys on the Assailant do 78 damage a pop, and that's what determines how high the mitigation shields go. The mitigation shields climb constantly
- There is a delay in updating the info on a ship. It looks like it's around 2 seconds. This accounts for why the mitigation climbs faster than it should. The "state" of the ship has delays in it.
- By calculation (and I could be completely wrong), the Illum wins. I found that the Illum will kill off the Assailant in 201 seconds
- I cannot confirm this, but only go by a post that Howthe? made in your first post about this. The Illum maxed out at 57%, while the Assailants stayed between 15-26% (expected).
- Knowing #4, I managed to produce the results you said you got. It takes ~201 seconds for an Illum to kill an Assailant. I got that the Illum is at 146 health, and that corresponds to a 2 second delay. I'm going to say the randomness of when the shots hit and the ship refreshes accounts for the extra 50+ health the ship has at the end.
- REGARDLESS, the Illum does more damage because none of it's damage is negated, so it keeps doing 45 damage per volley, or 7dps, while the Assailant starts out at 11dps, but ends up doing 5.6 dps.
- If you follow everything I've said, that means the lack of a constant refreshrate (i.e. the ship updates the info on itself every .01-.1 seconds), the data on the ship will be skewed in a 1v1 situation.