As the title says, I see a black screen and a cursor upon launching. If I alt-tab I'm told a minidump has been generated and the program closes. Having a mod enabled seems to be the problem. What's more troublesome is that then launching Entrenchment and disabling the mod and hitting the apply changes button causes a minidump as well. Didn't try editing the EnabledMods file as I had easy access to archived copies of Sins and Entrenchment, so I just reinstalled.
Diplomacy launches fine now. This could still be a hassle for folks though that don't come to the solution as quickly.
Here's the Diplomacy minidump from having the enabled mod:
http://www.mediafire.com/?mje0ifynj1m
And this is the Entrenchment minidump that occurs every time you try to disable an active mod:
http://www.mediafire.com/?mvxtkchm2zt
Now to go try out the expansion hopefully.